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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.

That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The team have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or activists want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.

Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."

Appeal for Wider Debate

Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."