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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action

The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "resolution".

After-Dark Attacks

As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity enabled by current data. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from ruin and another blackout.

Persistent Threats

Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a drone in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its objective.

Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.

Failed Diplomacy

The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.

Every new approach from American administration follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, continue.

Political Considerations

It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership works based on a principle familiar among international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to abandon the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its advantage in the coming year.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.

Present Conditions

Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a mere seven days to kill the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.

While new plans based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.